Mr Putin's business plan: Russia Oil and Gas Inc.

Is this where the golden secure parachute will be found for Vladimir Putin when he is termed out from the presidency of Russia in 2008?

 
On Saturday Russian President Vladimir Putin held a meeting of the Russian Security Council at which a new strategy that would give the government control of gas and oil extraction from the Russian shelf was discussed. It is hoped that the shelf will be Russia’s main energy resource base for the 21st century. To achieve this goal, the strategy calls for an end to joint-venture projects and a renewed focus on Russia’s home-grown strengths. To that end, the Russian gas and oil giants Gazprom, Rosneft, and Zarubezhneft may be combined into a single government monopoly that would take over the shelf, which would mean new inspections and headaches for foreign operators already working there
It has been my view for a while now, that Mr. Putin is not a politician. He is a businessman and he is building Russian Oil and Gas Inc, i.e. The Company for himself to dwarf the power any oil baron has ever had.
 
Here are some components of this Plan in no particular order and with all necessary references to Umberto Eco:
  • Decimation of Yukos and transfer of its assets to Roseneft for pennies on the dollar. 
  • Appointment of Putin's long time personal secretary and aid Igor Sechin to Chairmanship of the Board of Directors of Rosneft.
  • Float the Rosneft IPO at FTSE. The IPO was coordinated with the Kremlin.
  • Alexei Miller, another Putin's confidant from when Putin was deputy Mayor of St. Petersburg is the CEO of Gazprom.
  • Valery Golubyev yet another ex-KGB, ex-St. Peterburg government confidant was appointed to run Gazprom's oil arm.
  • German Gref, Russian Economic Development minister made a mistake suggesting to split Gazprom. Mr. Putin had a talk with him and the issue is no longer on the agenda.
  • Earlier this year Gazprom was given the natural gas export monopoly.
  • Gazprom now has former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder on its payroll
Putin considers it a personal achievement that Gazprom is now worth about $260 billion and ranks as the third-largest corporation worldwide in terms of market capitalization, after ExxonMobil and General Electric. The position Gazprom now holds in the international energy trade is "the result of concerted state activity," Putin said in his state of the nation address in May.
  • Use Gazprom's subsidiary Gazprom Media to take control of the major private - as it was at the time - TV Channel NTV.
  • Use Gazprom to exert (or is it extort) influence over neighbouring states by either closing or threatening to close the natural gas or oil spigots.
  • Use Gazprom to literally incite rebellions in disputed or breakaway areas of independent states formerly parts of the USSR.
Gazprom's leadership went as far as receiving South Ossetian "President" Eduard Kokoity for negotiations last October. The subject of the negotiations was an ambitious pipeline construction project. The pipeline would lead across the Caucasian Crest and into South Ossetia's capital city of Tskhinvali. Both the smirking rebel leader and the Gazprom managers knew only too well that the project, developed by the Kremlin, wasn't motivated by expectation of financial gain, but by the desire for political power.
  • Use Schröder and the proposed pipeline across the Baltic Sea to drive a wedge between Western Europe and ungrateful former USSR sattelites and colonies like Poland, Ukraine, Estonia , Latvia and Lithuania, by threatening to isolate them from energy resources.
  • Actively use foreign policy of Russia to destabilize the Caucuses region via Chechnya, South Ossetia, Abkhazia and prevent more capital investment in creating pipelines that would bypass Russia, threatening its monopoly and leverage power, and connect Central Asian energy resources with access to Black and to Mediterranean seas. 
  • Begin harassment of foreign investors (Sakhalin) with the aim of either forcing new conditions or altogether forcing them away.
None of these actions are really political in nature, but represent a sound planning to use the muscle of Presidency of Russia and create something entirely too powerful even for the future government of Russia to contend with. If Putin leaves without that kind of protection, he can be in danger of any autocrat leaving office - those that come after him might... come after him.
 
This latest report from Kommersant makes total sense: finally all oil and gas assets of Russia can be unified under the control of one man - Vladimir Putin. The combined power of Gazprom and Rosneft will make sure that the Kremlin is stacked with those loyal to the Company, just like now Gazprom and Rosneft are run by Putin Loyalists who are also members of his government.
 
And then, sometime in the future, more initial public offerings will float on FTSE or elsewhere with significant chunks being reserved for The Company's Bosses. Behold the the golden parachute and the soft landing it will provide.
 
None of this is meant to sound sinister or to suggest some grandiose plan to take over the world. Mr. Putin is no Goldfinger. One question remains, however, how long will it take to run such a monstrous monopoly into the ground? All his minions are no different from himself - they are all apparatchik bureaucrats of USSR mold. Such people are notorious for creating shortages of whatever they are managing be it natural gas, desert sand or toilet paper.
 
The most grand disservice that Putin did to Russia was not removing gubernatorial elections or taking over NTV. He destroyed what was quickly becoming a world class industry leading by Khodorkovsky's Yukos. That private capitalistic spirit would have propelled Russia, instead, it is becoming oversized Nigeria of Natural Gas with nukes.

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