Cyrill Vatomsky, Where All Politics Are Global

Although the vocal protests and PR driven saber rattling around the move of the Bronze Soviet Soldier to a military cemetery seem to be subsiding, the real fallout will be felt for quite some time. Not in form of direct actions but rather in attitude that will result in actions or inactions.

Western attitude towards relationships with Russia seems to be dull and lacking. It lacks excitement of the early 90-s, it lacks the sense of partnership of late 90-s and it starts loosing the sense of trust that came out of the Reagan Gorbachev era. Just like political capital of a leader can be wasted, political capital of a country can diminish. The US can most certainly feel some loss of political capital due to situation in Iraq, but it is expected from a controversial endeavor of such magnitude. But what has Russia spent its political and emotional capital on? What does it want to achieve by pursuing the current course? And is there a course after all?

Condi Rice is in Moscow right now and I would like to see a show of hands from people that think that something of any significance is going to be achieved during this visit? Kommersant Daily dies not expect any advances on any major issues.(link in Russian only) Oh, of course, they all will be addressed one way or another but both sides will likely agree to disagree.

The White House will sit and wait for changes during the complex period of transfer of power to a new president. Neither the White House no Kommersant seem to be considering a democratic transfer of power through free elections. There is no expectation of a vibrant political struggle, clashes of ideas, debates of where does Russia go from here. The course seems to be set, the engine running fairly smoothly and the crew is ready to go wherever the captain is taking the ship to. And this probably is going to be the main achievement of President Putin, if one can call it such: the tired crew is willing to follow the captain to that deserted island with a treasure chest. Does it occur to them that wild savages are going to eat half of them when going gets tough?

Who will send rescue teams when the mortgage bubble causes a crash in Russia? Brotherly Turkmenistan? Friendly China? Grateful Iran? It probably will not be neighbours like Estonians or Poles. Radio Echo Moskvy reports that Estonia might follow Poland and block the new Russia-EU agreement.

Estonian Defence Ministry will also ask NATO to consider computer attacks (most likely denial of service types) from foreign countries equal to military attacks. US Senator Richard Lugar had already suggested NATO should consider energy blackmail as a military upfront. Neither suggestion is likely to be adopted any time soon, but this forms a peculiar context around the course that Russia is pursuing. And my nagging feeling is that Russia is not pursuing any course at all. It has been taken for a ride by its President and his cohorts.

Russia has recently made several threatening moves using energy supply and flexed some natural gas muscle letting Europe know of its intentions. It has been on a buying expedition trying to purchase energy infrastructure in Europe, it has successfully blocked any potential for a TransCaspian  pipeline, routing all future gas from Turkmenistan through Gasprom pipelines and switches. Russian President hints of other sinister powers in the world that are supposedly seeking world domination. And then he takes two days to congratulate Nicolas Sarkozy with his presidential election victory in France.

What might be the purpose of this collision course? I can think of only one answer that does not involve excessive use of imagination: there is no purpose.  There is no plan, there is no course other then  the course of personal power and enrichment for the clan of Mr. Putin. To this purpose Russia's political and emotional capital is being spent with incompetent, criminal neglect.