Putin, Friedman, NATO and Cold War II.

Posted At : February 26, 2007 5:20 PM | Posted By : Cyrill Vatomsky
Related Categories: KSCO Radio Shows,Russia,Natural Gas,Podcasts,Putin,Gazprom,Free Market
Listen to or download Putin, Friedman, NATO and Cold War II. Podcast

Opening is a short comment on the previous week broadcast where a challenge was made that this show’s audience is too small and too intelligent, meaning this show’s content is way over most people’s heads.

I can not disagree more. My experience in this country and abroad tells me, borrowing Peggy Noonan’s words, this is the country of sophisticates. And there is no surprise for me in this. The amount of information, of different positions that this country is exposed to, vs. unanimity of media in other countries is the key to understand why United States is a country of sophisticates. And I am not talking about Russia some other country where a huge portion of the media is controlled by the government one way or another. How about UK, and its puny radio industry: BBC1, BBC2, BBC3, BBC4 and so on simulcasting both in FM and AM!

I will state this again: if there is something most valuable I brought with me from the USSR, something I learned because of my experiences there – that will be the conclusion that unanimity is not a good thing. Unanimity is dangerous, it is stagnating, it is bad for society.

 Plurality of ideas is what makes this country great and sophisticated. The free market of ideas, just like the free market of anything else: Coke vs. Pepsi, Left vs. Right, Nike vs. Reebok. The best will survive and the looser will die.

To those that called last week and supported this show, thank you, but I am not surprised – sophisticates need intellectual stimulation and this is once again the reason. We in this country get so much intellectual stimulation by being exposed to plurality of ideas that our mind bandwidth expands. The first law of dialectics at play: accumulation of quantity and transformation of accumulated quantity into new quality.

The media, however is somewhat a different story. Last week Mr. Putin made a speech in Munich that some treated as a declaration of the new Cold War. Unfortunately for Putin, a bimbo died in the US and the US media went into a carrion feeding frenzy of 24/7 dead bimbo coverage. Cold War? Who cares… Here is a good assessment of the situation by Ariel Cohen.

Putin waxed nostalgic about the bi-polar world in which the U.S. and the USSR checked each other's ambition through a balance of nuclear terror known as Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD). Many Russian and Western experts perceive Putin's speech as a declaration of a new Cold War.

Moving on to apparent exception to the first law of dialectics: Thomas L. Freidman and his syndicated column about Putin’s speech in Munich. I do not for the life of me, understand how is it possible that Thomas L. Friedman still has no clue about Russia its policies and goals. He takes a cue from Putin, complaining about expansion of NATO and tries to sell it as his own conclusion. How pathetically transparent! Then he insults people that suffered long and hard behind the iron curtain:

OK, fine, we were ready to enrage Russia to expand NATO, but what have we gotten out of it? The Czech navy?

Nice going Mr. Friedman, duh, very funny indeed. Have you no shame dishing out this condescending spite towards the country twice before betrayed by the West?  We in the West must support and protect those that want to join our club of democratic capitalism. If and when Russia wants to join, we should invite it as well. Friedman clearly does not get it. He also makes absolutely clueless claims like:

For those of us who opposed NATO expansion, the point was simple: There is no major geopolitical issue, especially one like Iran, that we can resolve without Russia's help.

How can a person that travels around the globe think that the world is flat? How can someone with that kind of experience and knowledge not understand that it is not in Russia’s interests to resolve the situation with Iran? Just look at the map and ponder the importance of the Caspian Sea, Central Asian Oil and Gas, Russia’s desire to keep its virtual monopoly on access to Central Asia. It is clear as day to me and I wonder why is it not clear as day to Thomas L. Friedman that it is completely futile to expect Putin’s Russia Inc. to help. This issue also later comes up during my conversation with caller Kenny who also inquired about Putin’s personal oil and gas interests and ambition. Take a listen.

The bottom line is if Russia wants to be a petro-cartel then the status quo is in its interests, nothing else.

Then there is David Ignatius

Russia is back. That's the real lesson I take from Putin's blunt comments. A country that was near collapse after the fall of Soviet communism has regained enough confidence and stability to take a verbal shot at its old rival.

This is equally silly. How confident and stable is Chavez, or Ahmadinejad who constantly snipe at the US. Obviously, Krauthammer he is not.

How similar are the 2007 and 1994 North Korea agreements? Have a listen as well.

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Iraq troop escalation, Iran's oil crisis, Russia vs. Belarus and Hugo Chavez

Posted At : January 15, 2007 4:46 PM | Posted By : Cyrill Vatomsky
Related Categories: Socialism,Belarus,Podcasts,Russia,LIberation of Iraq,Communism,Putin,Capitalism,Energy,KSCO Radio Shows,Natural Gas
Listen to or download Iraq troop escalation, Iran's oil crisis, Russia vs. Belarus and Hugo Chavez Podcast

January 14th broadcast of the Embassy of the New World Order.

Just another installment of utter brilliance... as one of the callers said.

Subjects for this January 14th edition of the Emabssy of the New World Order on KSCO AM 1080 included:

  • Escalation and surge of troops in Iraq. There is at least one aspect that must be considered before any comments are made and way too many armchair admirals and generals do not understand it. I have to admit that I myself foolishly neglected to find out more about numbers and was of the opinion that additional 20,000 are not enough compared to 140,000 already there. Well, it appears that in terms of Baghdad proper, this escalation and surge will more then double US troop contingent. According to Economist, 5 brigades will be added to 4 stationed there. Since Baghdad is the central point for the push, my optimism levels have risen to manageable levels.
  • La Patria o la tumba! Hugo Chavez is dropping silly pretense and is calling himself for the communist he is. He is embarking on the path of late Salvadore Allende nationalizing communications, energy and oil industries. Considering records of Communist states or states with nationalized pyramid economies like USSR running out of grain with all the Ukrainian topsoil, the end result will be Venezuela running out of oil, oil money and making its people even more poor.
  • Case to the point is a shocking prediction of  Iran running out of oil. Not out of oil in the ground, but out of oil available for consumption. Combine this with German Gref's warning that Russia might run out of natural gas for internal use. Oil prices have been on decline for some time now hovering just above $50 per barrel. Iran and Russia whose governments survive because of the petrodollars they rake in, might begin to feel the pinch if the situation continues to deteriorate. Especially if it is true that 70% of Iran's budget is based on oil revenues.
  • Quick commentary on yet another PR fiasco the inept Putin Inc administration dragged Russia into - the quarrel with Belarus over oil and gas supplies, Gazprom's stake in Belarusneftegaz as well as another reminder to the Europeans of how reliable as a partner Russia can be.
As always much more substance, callers, funnies in the podcast. Download and enjoy.

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The Lukashenka and Putin Gas Gambit - Love Thy Neighbour and His Gas.

Posted At : December 28, 2006 4:32 PM | Posted By : Cyrill Vatomsky
Related Categories: Niyazov,Energy,Belarus,Russia,Natural Gas,Gazprom,Putin,Europe

The tempest in the Minsk teapot is brewing into a regional tornado that eventually threatens to wipe Belarus democratically self-elected President Aleksander Lukashenka off the political map of Europe.

 
To recap from the very beginning:
  • Some time in the past Mr. Putin decided to abandon considerations for unification of Belarus and Russia into a new state entity thus allowing Mr. Putin to run for the third term as President of Russia, making democratically self-elected Lukashenka a mere nuisance and a waste of hard earned petrodollars.
  • Also some time in the past, democratically self-elected Belarus President Alexander Lukashenka mouthed something that Mr. Putin found offensive.
  • Russia decided to raise prices Belarus pays for natural gas imports from Russia to $200 per 1,000 cubic meters. On the surface, this goes along the lines of “Russia(Gazprom) ain’t Santa Claus.” Too true. Calendar based contracts turn democratically elected CEO of Russia Inc into a Grinch instead.
What drives this crisis? Is it Putin’s temper tantrum, his vindictiveness or maybe his desire to save Russia millions or billions of petrodollars that can be used to build more nuclear submarines to fight the war in Chechnya? All possible explanations but there is one aspect of this story that makes me think  that, as it has been through most of Putin’s presidency, interests of Russia as a country are substituted with interests of Russia Inc, its owners and management.
 
Lukashenka dangled a bait in front of Gazprom in the form of the 50% stake in the Belarus pipeline monopoly Beltransgaz. Initial assessment put the price tag of Beltransgaz at half a billion. However correct this assessment was, Gazprom apparently agreed to $3B. Or even $5B
 
In an opinion and analysis piece RIA Novosti asks “Gazprom vs. Lukashenko: who is trapped?” Indeed:
Moscow was forced to make concessions. Gazprom agreed to Beltransgaz's assessment of $3 billion. Last week it was already talking about $5 billion.
Now, suddenly, less then a week before the New Year, there is no contract for either Gazprom gas supplies to Belarus nor there is a contract for the 50% stake. And what is more, according to Minsk, there is no contract for Russia to transit its gas through Beltransgaz to Poland, Baltic States and Kaliningrad region.
 
Lukashenka’s cadre now demand Belarus pays the same price as the Russian city of Smolensk does. And they stated quite pointedly that any transit of gas via Beltransgaz will be considered contraband.
 
True, Russia and Gazprom can turn Belarus spigot completely off but there is yet another problem.  According to Kommersant three out of five pumping stations along the Yamal-Europe pipeline belong to Beltransgaz. If Putin Inc turns off Belarus spigot, then Lukashenka Inc can turn off these stations, dropping pipeline pressure so much that Russia would not be able to supply what Europe demands.
 
Taking Lukashenka’s bait and eye-gorging the potential expansion of its pipeline infrastructure trapped Gazprom and Putin Inc., leaving nobody else to blame but own greed.
 
Belarus might be a tougher nut to crack then Ukraine that folded last year in 4 days. Authoritarian ways of Lukashenka, his popularity as well as nationalism he managed to stir up in Belarus will help to stand up to the blockade.  Most power stations in Belarus are apparently being switched to fuel oil.
 
Belarus is not a signatory to the EU energy charter and can set up any rates for transit via its pipelines. On the other hand, Ukraine, now back into Russia’s fold with PM Yanukovich at the helm can easily step in and relieve some of the pressure. How reliable an ally Yanukovich is to Putin Inc remains to be seen.
 
Thinking of the previous entry in my blog, I wonder if Putin Inc will be less inept in trying to get its hands on Turkmenistan's natual gas assets or infrastructure.
 
Happy New Year.

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And so it begins: Saparmurat Niyazov, Turkmenbashi dies with no heir apparent.

Posted At : December 23, 2006 12:28 PM | Posted By : Cyrill Vatomsky
Related Categories: Niyazov,Energy,Russia,Turkmenistan,Natural Gas,Gazprom,Putin,Europe

Another one bites the dust... I know it is not nice to say bad things about recently dead people, but what good could you say about recently dead really bad guy? Who really was worse then Saparmurat Niyazov, the petty dictator of the poor Central Asian nation of Turkmenistan? The guy that stole national wealth from his people to adorn his capital city with golden statues of himself? Burn in hell, jerk would be more appropriate I think, albeit childish.

 
I do not think the world would even look back and remember the name of Turkmenbashi in a week, since we will all be watching the drama of succession. It does not make us look too good with popcorn and all elbowing our way closer to the screen, but let's not forget that the interest is quite genuine although admittedly not purely humanitarian. There is quite a bit at stake related to succession of Turkmenistan:
  • Huge natural gas reserves made Turkmenistan a magnet for influences. Without Turkmen gas Russia would not be able to honor its gas supply obligations to Europe and have much l;eft over for its internal consumption.
  • Europe is seriously dependent on Russian/Turkmen natural gas supplies.
  • So, instability of Turkmenistan would theoretically be a bad thing for both Russia and Europe, unless...
There is another aspect that needs to be considered. Turkmenbashi has been trying to strike it on his own for a while. He demonstrably stuck his thumb up Mr. Putin's nose with demanding knowledge of the Turkmen language even for college exams. Ethnic Russians have been leaving Turkmenistan in droves since then. Niyasov also entertained direct contacts with the Ukraine and other not so Russia friendly consumers of natural gas, but he has always been landlocked.
 
Who knows what Russian politics would be in this situation. As I have stated many times, fundamental national interests of Russia have been supplemented with interests of Putin Inc., and I have a nasty feeling those interests will see an opening to tie Turkmen natural gas to itself by trading support for a new ruler in exchange for either PSA or even direct ownership. After all, people that pulled the Yukos/Baikal/Rosneft affair should be able to do even more.
 
The succession fighting has already began - figuratively for now Although Turkmenistan Constitution meant the speaker to become an interim President, a deputy Prime Minister somehow got the job and...
ALMATY, Dec. 23 (Xinhua) -- Turkmenistan's acting President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov has sacked the country's Parliament speaker Ovezgeldy Atayev, Turkmen state television reported Saturday.  "You have been relieved from the post of parliament speaker," Berdymukhamedov said on state television after the chamber voted to strip Atayev of his immunity.
also:
Speaker of Turkmen Parliament Ovezgeldy Atayev has been arrested, APA special reporter in Turkmenistan reports. Criminal proceedings were instituted against the speaker two hours later the news about Saparmurat Niyazov’s death was announced. Under the Constitution, the presidential powers must be transferred to the parliament speaker.
The West is taking the situation seriously expecting fighting to go beyond figurative:
WASHINGTON, Dec. 21 (UPI) -- Security experts are recommending that Americans and other foreigners prepare to leave Turkmenistan.
It is quite possible that the succession issue has been at least temporarily resolved and the Turkmenbasi did not die on the 21st - but some time earlier
Some claim that one and a half month before he had some operations (heart, eye and leg) and died 20-25 days before (according to some Russian resources 3 days ago), and in this period internal dynamics of Turkmenistan compromised on the solution. In fact, official declaration of the name of the Vice President and Mister of Healt Kurbanguli Berdimuhammedov is giving the impression that the leadership problem has been solved for the time being.

It will be interesting to see who would eventually emerge and the new basi. Somehow I think we have not heard last from Lt. Gen. Geldimukhammed Ashirmukhammedov, the security minister.

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