Cyrill Vatomsky, Where All Politics Are Global: Turkmenistan

And so it begins: Saparmurat Niyazov, Turkmenbashi dies with no heir apparent.

Posted At : December 23, 2006 12:28 PM | Posted By : Cyrill Vatomsky
Related Categories: Niyazov,Energy,Russia,Turkmenistan,Natural Gas,Gazprom,Putin,Europe

Another one bites the dust... I know it is not nice to say bad things about recently dead people, but what good could you say about recently dead really bad guy? Who really was worse then Saparmurat Niyazov, the petty dictator of the poor Central Asian nation of Turkmenistan? The guy that stole national wealth from his people to adorn his capital city with golden statues of himself? Burn in hell, jerk would be more appropriate I think, albeit childish.

I do not think the world would even look back and remember the name of Turkmenbashi in a week, since we will all be watching the drama of succession. It does not make us look too good with popcorn and all elbowing our way closer to the screen, but let's not forget that the interest is quite genuine although admittedly not purely humanitarian. There is quite a bit at stake related to succession of Turkmenistan:

Huge natural gas reserves made Turkmenistan a magnet for influences. Without Turkmen gas Russia would not be able to honor its gas supply obligations to Europe and have much l;eft over for its internal consumption.
Europe is seriously dependent on Russian/Turkmen natural gas supplies.
So, instability of Turkmenistan would theoretically be a bad thing for both Russia and Europe, unless...

There is another aspect that needs to be considered. Turkmenbashi has been trying to strike it on his own for a while. He demonstrably stuck his thumb up Mr. Putin's nose with demanding knowledge of the Turkmen language even for college exams. Ethnic Russians have been leaving Turkmenistan in droves since then. Niyasov also entertained direct contacts with the Ukraine and other not so Russia friendly consumers of natural gas, but he has always been landlocked.

Who knows what Russian politics would be in this situation. As I have stated many times, fundamental national interests of Russia have been supplemented with interests of Putin Inc., and I have a nasty feeling those interests will see an opening to tie Turkmen natural gas to itself by trading support for a new ruler in exchange for either PSA or even direct ownership. After all, people that pulled the Yukos/Baikal/Rosneft affair should be able to do even more.

The succession fighting has already began - figuratively for now Although Turkmenistan Constitution meant the speaker to become an interim President, a deputy Prime Minister somehow got the job and...

ALMATY, Dec. 23 (Xinhua) -- Turkmenistan's acting President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov has sacked the country's Parliament speaker Ovezgeldy Atayev, Turkmen state television reported Saturday. "You have been relieved from the post of parliament speaker," Berdymukhamedov said on state television after the chamber voted to strip Atayev of his immunity.

also:

Speaker of Turkmen Parliament Ovezgeldy Atayev has been arrested, APA special reporter in Turkmenistan reports. Criminal proceedings were instituted against the speaker two hours later the news about Saparmurat Niyazov’s death was announced. Under the Constitution, the presidential powers must be transferred to the parliament speaker.

The West is taking the situation seriously expecting fighting to go beyond figurative:

WASHINGTON, Dec. 21 (UPI) -- Security experts are recommending that Americans and other foreigners prepare to leave Turkmenistan.

It is quite possible that the succession issue has been at least temporarily resolved and the Turkmenbasi did not die on the 21st - but some time earlier

Some claim that one and a half month before he had some operations (heart, eye and leg) and died 20-25 days before (according to some Russian resources 3 days ago), and in this period internal dynamics of Turkmenistan compromised on the solution. In fact, official declaration of the name of the Vice President and Mister of Healt Kurbanguli Berdimuhammedov is giving the impression that the leadership problem has been solved for the time being.

It will be interesting to see who would eventually emerge and the new basi. Somehow I think we have not heard last from Lt. Gen. Geldimukhammed Ashirmukhammedov, the security minister.